Accelerating Hunger in the Society. Impact of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
Zusammenfassung
In December 2019, a new type of coronavirus causing pneumonia and death was identified in Wuhan, China which is called SARS-CoV-2 . The death toll and the cases of COVID-19 transmission each day has been shocking everyone. Despite the vaccination campaign globally the threat of second wave that is much stronger has induced intimidation to the society. Nevertheless, hunger is the biggest cause of death even today. The pandemic is really three crises in one; income, food and health crisis. The global impact is still expanding daily with second wave. SARS-CoV-2 is new to the human immune system. To reduce the impact of shocks of pandemic in the long term, we must build more resilient and inclusive food systems. Enhancing food security for nutrition to boost the immune system should be explored and recommended. Direct support to enterprises, particularly to SMEs and mobilize large injections of concessional finance even from the private lending agencies may support to ensure livelihood security. Prime concern is to reset the economy with Protective Liberalism. The ‘Coronomics’ could be the foundation for greening the Human Economics.
Leseprobe
Accelerating Hunger in the Society: Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic
Dr. Man Bahadur Bk
Background
In December 2019, a new type of coronavirus causing pneumonia and death was identified in Wuhan, China which is called SARS-CoV-2 because it is genetically similar to SARS-CoV which caused the 2002 outbreak of severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).1 Till the February 2021 the total cases of COVID-19 transmission reaches to 7.8 billion with the death toll of 2.5 million.2 The highest death toll (16,713) was on January 28 of this year. The death toll and the cases of COVID-19 transmission each day has been shocking everyone before the COVID vaccine was in place. Nowadays the COVID Vaccine has been introduced and used in several countries, and the world has been getting into the new-normal. Despite the vaccination campaign globally the threat of second wave that is much stronger has induced intimidation to the society. Nevertheless, very few people are aware that hunger is the biggest cause of death even today.
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Table-1: Death toll due to COVID-19 until February 26, 2021
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/ visited on February 26, 2021.
Ten million people die every year (more than 25,000 per day)3 due to hunger and hunger related diseases, much more than of COVID-19 transmission. Over 2.5 million Indians die of hunger every year that counts over 7,000 every day. A child dies from hunger every ten seconds.4
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Figure-1: Total Cases Worldwide over time
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/ visited on February 26, 2021 .
As per UNICEF report (2018) approximately 3.1 million children die from undernutrition each year. That is nearly half of all deaths in children under the age of five. Thus, the hunger is still the world's biggest health problem.
As per the FAO report (2020)5 almost 690 million people in the world (8.9 percent of the world population) are estimated to have been undernourished in 2019, even before the COVID-19. Considering the total affected by moderate or severe levels of food insecurity, an estimated two billion people in the world did not have regular access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food in 2019. The largest number of undernourished people (more than 381 million) live in Asia, mostly in southern Asian countries. The number of people affected by hunger in the world continues to increase slowly as the trend started in 2014 and extends to 2019. The reasons for the observed increase of the last few years are multiple. Much of the recent increase in food insecurity can be attributed to the greater number of conflicts, weather extremes, locust invasion and economic shocks as shown in figure-3. Even in some peaceful settings, food security has deteriorated as a result of economic slowdowns threatening access to food for the poor.
Figure-2: Regional divide of Food Insecurity
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Figure-3: The Pandemic is an additional threat to Food System
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Source: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment
The Global Report on Food Crisis, 20206 which measures acute situation of food insecurity revealed that more than 135 million people across 50 countries experienced acute hunger in 2019 requiring urgent food, nutrition and livelihoods assistance. Among them more than half of the affected population were in Africa. Globally, 6.9 percent (47 million) children under five years of age are wasted in 20197, two-thirds of whom live in Asia. Likewise, the prevalence of child stunting is 21.3 percent, or 144 million children. The global prevalence of overweight among children under 5 years of age has not improved, going from 5.3 percent in 2012 to 5.6 percent, or 38.3 million children, in 2019. WFP estimates (2016) that 66 million schoolchildren go to school hungry.8 There are, even today, about 40 per cent of the world's population without access to water and sanitation.9
The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic
The pandemic is really three crises in one.10 First, the economic crisis has led to job loss, income loss and a reduction in the global gross domestic product (GDP). Second, a food system crisis has disrupted food supplies and limited the availability of food in markets, especially nutritious foods, while the price of food has also increased due to the shrink in supply. Third, the health crisis and the related lockdowns have led to reduced access to health and nutrition services. So, this triple threat has certainly pushed up the number of undernourished people. It is projected that for any one percentage point slowdown of the global economy, the number of poor-and with it the number of food insecure people-would increase by 2 percent, that is, by 14 million people.11 The
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Table-2: Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections (in percentage)
Source: IMF, 2020
IMF12 has projected the global economy to contract sharply by -4.4 percent in 2020, from 2.8 percent in 2019. The cumulative output loss to the global economy across 2020 and 2021 from the pandemic crisis would be over $ 12 trillion. That would push around hundred millions of people immediately to food insecure zone. A preliminary assessment suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic could add up to 130 million people globally to the risk of acute hunger making the total number 265 million in 2020.13 However, the global economy is suffering from prolonged ‘slow down'. So, it is obvious that more people than estimated might have been already pushed to hunger. The WB estimates close to 90 million people expected to fall into extreme deprivation for 2020.14 It forecasts that the largest share of the “new poor” will be in South Asia, with Sub-Saharan Africa close behind.15 The IMF has forecasted a recovery of global growth with 5.2 percent in 2021. However, these recoveries are not only uneven but also unachievable since the revival of the economy in such a speed is impossible until and unless there are very focused fast-track interventions.
The global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is still expanding daily with second wave. Between present disruptions and future threats to the food supply chain, the pandemic has generated extreme vulnerability, among others, in the agriculture sector which is more sensitive to social life. According to UN estimates,16 more than half a billion children worldwide have lost their access to education as a result of coronavirus lockdowns. Many won't return to the classrooms after the pandemic, with girls more likely than boys to drop out. The WFP estimates that more than 320 million primary schoolchildren in 120 countries are now missing out on school meals.17 A recent estimates18 revealed that by 2022 this nutrition crisis could result in an additional 9.3 million wasted and 2.6 million stunted children. The pandemic will affect maternal nutrition as well, with 2.1 million additional maternal anemia cases, and 2.1 million children born to mothers with a low body-mass index, putting these children at a disadvantage from the very start.
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Figure-4: Gender Equality and COVID-19
Source: ADB Brief no 157
There are several dimensions of social impact of COVID-19 pandemic including widening digital divide and reversing equality. The crisis threatens to reverse hard-won gains in gender equality, further exposing women's vulnerabilities based on their precrisis social, economic, and political situations as shown in figure-4. Even though fewer women than men, in total, test positive, women may face other health challenges due to the virus: (i) women's large engagement in care work exposes them to infection; and (ii) lockdowns hamper access to both health care and food, creating challenges for pregnant women and mothers with young children who have special needs for nutritious foods particularly rich in micronutrients.19
million primary schoolchildren in 120 countries are now missing out on school meals. A recent estimates revealed that by 2022 this nutrition crisis could result in an additional 9.3 million wasted and 2.6 million stunted children. The pandemic will affect maternal nutrition as well, with 2.1 million additional maternal anemia cases, and 2.1 million children born to mothers with a low body-mass index, putting these children at a disadvantage from the very start.
Job Losses: Losing the Affordability it unaffordable for the poor: around 57 percent or more of the population cannot afford a healthy diet throughout sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia.21 The reduced access to nutritious food will have negative impacts on the health and cognitive development of COVID-era children for years to come.
ILO labour market data on the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 reveals a 8.8 per cent unprecedented drop in working hour, equivalent to a loss of 255 million full-time jobs (assuming a 48-hour working week) due to massive disruption in the world of work.22 Half of the total loss of working hours in 2020 occurred during the second quarter of the year (18.2 percent, equivalent to 525 million full-time jobs). There is the devastating effect on workers in the informal economy and on hundreds of millions of enterprises worldwide. Among the most vulnerable in the labour market, almost 1.6 billion informal economy workers (out of a worldwide total of two billion and a global workforce of 3.3 billion) have suffered massive damage to their capacity to earn a living.23 The first month of the crisis is estimated to have resulted in a drop of 60 per cent in the income of informal workers globally. This translates into a drop of 81 per cent in Africa and the Americas, 21.6 per cent in Asia and the Pacific, and 70 per cent in Europe and Central Asia. Workers in four sectors that have experienced the most “drastic” effects of the disease and falling production are food and accommodation (144 million workers), retail and wholesale (482 million), business services and administration (152 million) and manufacturing 463 million).24 Due to the job losses global labour income is estimated to have declined by 8.3 per cent in 2020 relative to 2019 with a large disparity within the country income groups and inequality between workers.25 In monetary terms, global labour income fell by an estimated US$3.7 trillion (using 2019 market exchange rates) in 2020 relative to 2019. This corresponds to 4.4 per cent of global GDP in 2019. Moreover, Automation, in tandem with the COVID-19 recession, is creating a “double-disruption” scenario for workers. The workforce is automating faster than expected, displacing 85 million jobs in the next five years. 26 Massive job loss will also hard-hit to the labour-sending countries since there would be heavy fall in remittances. Those labour income losses could push households into poverty and cause them to reduce their food consumption once savings have been used up.
Figure-6. Estimates of the working hours and employment lost in 2020
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Source: ILO Monitor 2021
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1 Philip C Calder, Nutrition, immunity and COVID-19, BMJ Journals (Volume 3, issue 1. June 2020)
2 https://www.worldometers.info/visited on February 26, 2021
3 http://www.bhookh.com/hunger_facts.php
4 https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/people-and-poverty/hunger-and-obesity/how-many-people-die-from- hunger-each-year
5 FAO, The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, 2020
6 Global Report on Food Crisis, 2020, Global Network against Food Crisis and FSIN, 2020
7 FAO, The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020
8 Lesley Drake, Global School Feeding Resource Book (2016), available at https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/P1070
9 UN (2020), Shared Responsibility, Global Solidarity: Responding to Socio-economic Impact of COVID-19
10 https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/12/23/the-intergenerational-malnutrition-legacy-of-COVID-19
11 Compact2025 News in Brief: March 25, 2020
12 IMF (2020), World Economic Outlook October 2020: A Long and Difficult Ascent, International Monetary Fund.
13 https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/hunger/ visited on 3/1/2021
14 https://blogs.imf.org/2020/10/13/a-long-uneven-and-uncertain-ascent/
15 https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/2020-year-review-impact-COVID-19-12-charts
16 https://blogs.imf.org/2020/06/11/the-global-economic-reset-promoting-a-more-inclusive-recovery/
17 UN (2020), Shared Responsibility, Global Solidarity: Responding to Socio-economic Impact of COVID-19
18 https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/12/23/the-intergenerational-malnutrition-legacy-of-COVID-19
19 ADB Briefs No 157, COVID-19 is No Excuse to Regress on Gender Equality, November 2020
