Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Introduction
- Theoretical background
- Research questions
- The choice of theory
- The choice of case
- Research strategy
Chapter 2: Theoretical Framework
- The Roots of Neorealism
- Kenneth Waltz: The Father of Neo-Realism
- Balance of Power
- Neorealism, Cooperation and Alliances
- Methodological Approach
- Data sources
- Expected Empirical Findings
- General neorealist predictions
- Specific neorealist predictions with regards to greening
Chapter 3: NATO with respect to Energy
Chapter 4: Greening
- The United States
- The United Kingdoms
- The European Union
Chapter 5: Interpretation of Greening using Neorealism
Chapter 6: Answers to Research Questions and Hypothesis
Chapter 7: Conclusions
Writing a Master Thesis is a daunting task, filled with hours upon hours of searching, reading, writing and study. Nonetheless, it is a daunting task that develops, that tests and that makes one a more keen individual. However, a thesis is nothing without all the people who put their time, effort and resources into making it happen.
First and foremost, I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor prof. dr hab. Jacek Sroka for his support throughout the thesis and his belief in my ideas. In addition, I would like to thank all the academic staff in my department, who even in their little ways showed support or gave me their comments and feedback.
Furthermore, I would like to thank the Institution of Political Science and the University of Wrocław, as well as , Université Libre de Bruxelles for pushing me to my limits, for expanding my knowledge and skills and giving me so many priceless experiences.
Moreover, I would like to thank my partner, Julia Rokicka, for being there for me in the best and worst of times. I am forever grateful for her constant support, and for both keeping me harmonious and helping me with putting ideas together.
Similarly, Michal Kovářík, my dear friend who has guided me constantly in the research and writing process. His comments, ideas and constructive criticisms greatly contributed to what the thesis came out to be.
Finally, my loving family, who has helped shape me into the man I am today. My sister, Victoria Kozakiewicz, who has assisted with the proofreading and editing of the paper, I am forever grateful. Thank you for being.
Thus, this brings me to my parents. I thank my mother and father wholeheartedly. Without them, well, there would not be these words on this page. They have done so much for me in the past, do so now in the present and will do so much more for me in the future.
As a finally point, I thank the universe within and around me and all the ones I did not mention.
The theory of Neorealism, elaborated by the Kenneth Waltz, makes a relevant point in outlining the political nature of military self-sufficiency and the greening process in NATO’s member’s militaries. As it has come to be known, greening with respect to energy security is on NATO’s agenda and very few studies try to understand the theoretical process of this issue. This thesis intends to fill this gap by analyzing the process of greening and energy security within NATO through the Neo-realism paradigm. Nonetheless, this thesis argues dimensions of energy conflicts, and calls attention to self-sufficiency and anarchical structures at the foundation of Neorealism. This thesis argues this particular example of NATO shows the benefits of Neorealism in understanding the military self-sufficiently and the greening process of NATO and ultimately calling for a more thorough and constructive need to develop this school of thought and the study of this case.
Chapter 1: Introduction
“Surely one of the strangest things in military history is the almost complete silence upon the problem of supply. Not in ten thousand books written on war is there to be found one on this subject... yet it forms the basis on which rests the whole structure of war; it is the very foundation of tactics and strategy “ (Colonel, 1934).
Major General’s JFC Fuller, if alive today, would have to reconsider his statement, as today there are hundreds if not thousands of books related to the problem of energy and supply. It is clear in the literature that energy security has been long studied in Political Science and International Relations (Barnett, 2010, Luft, 2009, Rosner, 2009, Moran, 2008, Monaghan, 2008.2006) but the case for NATO with respect to greening has not been as developed. Even though, NATO is an example that relates directly to the former.
Among several emerging issues, Ukraine, the economy and terrorism, which were discussed by the European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, European Commission President Manuel Barroso and United States President Barrack Obama during the March 26 News Conference in Brussels, Belgium, energy security appears to be one of the most contentious (Washington Post, 2014). NATO’s and most countries ever growing interest in environmental also support this and energy security related issues for many years now.
Therefore the aim of this study is to evaluate energy policies of NATO member states, which for the remainder of this thesis will be labeled as “green”, through the prism of the neorealist paradigm. More specifically, in order to capture this case study, an appropriate theoretical framework needs to be defined. Neorealism recommends a set of theoretical tools that build upon a perspective, especially by drawing interest to self-sufficiency, resource dependence and scarcity and by linking economic, environmental and social conflicts on various levels of analysis (Thue, 2007). Hence, based on a literature and policy review, this thesis demonstrates the main assumptions and methodological approaches of Neorealism and aims at examining how this relevant perspective is useful for the study of greening within NATO and its militaries.
The evolution and future of NATO is important not only from the perspective of policy-makers, but also for international relations theory. The end of the Cold War, “changes all the answers and all the questions,” renders to Charles Kegley (Kegley 1993: 141). The world has evolved, the balances of power have changed, technology has developed and resources ever more needed. An alternative perspective to Kegley’s was that the fall of the Soviet Empire allowed for the opportunity for scholars to test their hypothesis and theories while proving their relevance even among an ever-changing environment (Thue, 2007:7). As John Mearsheimer specified during the 1990s, social scientists should use the world “as a laboratory to decide which theories best explain international politics” (Mearsheimer, 1990: 9).
The former is of precise bearing for Neorealism, which has been the prevailing theory in international relations. Neorealism, first presented by Kenneth Waltz (1979) in his Theory of International Politics (1979), focuses on producing for international relations a theory in which a more scientific direction is given on the focus of the universal level of analysis. Therefore, the case of NATO and Neorealism work well together to analyze the world in which greening is occurring.
In turn, the thesis will pose the following research questions and these questions should be kept in mind throughout the reading and will accordingly develop the hypothesis.
1. Is greening the military an inevitable phenomenon as natural resources become more depleted?
2. Is the nation´s military defense modernization interconnected with the “greening” process?
2. Is self-sufficiency vital for military power?
3. What are the prospects for self-sufficiency?
4. Does greening anyhow threaten the exclusive, nation-level position of militaries?
There are two purposes for this thesis. The main purpose one is to assess the relative descriptive power of Neorealism; a secondary one will be to assess the state of NATO, some of its alliance member militaries and their greening policies.
These are very comprehensive research question, and to answer it a three-part approach is needed. The first part will consist of analyzing the theory. The second part will look at NATO, energy and the greening policies. The third part will analyze the former through the Neorealist perspective while answering the research questions.
The choice of theory
The choice of Neorealism is because of its leading status within international relations theory. Neorealism is arguably the dominant school within the field. It is a systemic theory that assumes that regularities of international behavior are best explained by the nature of the international system (Thue, 2007:8). Neorealism, which comes from the positivist school, is useful for theorizing and predicting various hypothesis (Thue, 2007:8).
Therefore, it becomes imperative to conduct empirical research such as this thesis to further develop Neorealism and bring progression to the fields of International Relations and Political Science. While, other theories might offer equal or comparable insights, the question is not whether a theory is more or less true than another, but which is more useful in the sense of having the greater explanatory and predictive powers (Waltz 1979: 8 cited in Thue, 2007:9).
The choice of case
NATO has been chosen because it should be an excellent case for Neorealism to explain. First, Neorealism’s main concern is the systematic level and NATO processes herein. Second, NATO is a military alliance it is essential for power theory. Third, Neorealism makes many predictions about NATO. Fourth, rich sources of data are readily available. In addition, finally and most importantly, this case is of fundamental importance (Thue, 2007).
Evermore, the study of the energy within NATO appears to be empirically relevant for three important reasons;
First, the active role of NATO and its members in greening (NATO Energy Security Centre' of Excellence, 2013, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, 2013, Green 2013,US Navy, 2010, US Air Force, 2010, US Army, 2009, Ministry of Defence, UK Minstry of Defence 2009,2011, Vitel, 2010). The assumption here is that for NATO energy security is vital and to keep its status quota of a growing military organization, the relevance of this topic is important. In addition, NATO is able to work at and to link the world through member states. It serves as an entity where alliance members can make collective decisions and negotiate at international levels.
Second, the rise of Russia’s and China’s military power and modernization of their militaries have sped up the process and demand for NATO to become energy self-sufficient (Putin, 2014, Tiezzi , 2014 ). Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Secretary General of NATO, recently stated that Russia was mounting a sophisticated "disinformation campaign" aimed at undermining attempts to exploit alternative energy sources such as shale gas (Edgar, 2014).
Third, the academic literature, throughout the years has been rich in energy security and but lacking in greening (Fiott, 2014, Roughhead, 2012, Reichert, 2011, Schuyler, 2010, Stein, 2009, Moran, 2008, Gallis, 2006,Monaghan, 2006, Spero, 1973, Esper, 1969, Lippmann,1934, etc).
Finally, in the current context of international politics and relations the promotion of a green economy and green militaries, of globalization and interdependence (Keohane 2001), of opposition against a "club diplomacy" (Badie, 2011) and of the rise of ecological consciousness (Barnett, 2010), could mean that the greening of NATO can constitute a strategic move to secure the prosperity of its members.
This section will present the three hypotheses of this thesis in order to draw out the Neorealist approach to further analyze greening in NATO. The logic behind these hypotheses rests with energy security being a national interest, where rational state actors intend to cooperate in NATO for their own benefits, survival and self-sufficiency.
H1: It is an inevitable phenomenon that as natural resources become further depleted; securing the supply of energy will further become a matter of national interest.
Arnold Wolfers (1952) defined security as the absence of threats to acquired values. To put it simply, securing the supply of energy is all about national security interest. Furthermore, in accordance to Wolfers’ definition, security is more than just defense policy and physical survival; it also implies “a substantial range of concerns about the conditions of existence (Wolfer, 1952 cited Bauman, 2008: 4). Any instance of resources and energy or supplies thereof directly affects a nation’s economic output, political stability and well-being. Thus, securing the supply of energy is a vital matter of national interests. In sum, securing is more than just a defense policy or the physical ability to survive; it also implies apprehensions of national existence.
H2: The greater the threat to energy security is the more desirable greening becomes.
What units Neorealism is conflict or the threat of it, and there are growing indicators of energy security conflict relating to scarcity of natural resources (Vitel, 2010, Rosner, 2009). Yet, contrary to common beliefs inherited from Homer-Dixon’s work (Homer-Dixon, 1998), Philippe Le Billon does not identify resource scarcity, but rather resource abundance as the main source of energy conflicts (Le Billon, 2001). This can be relative for the case of the EU, since its greatest energy threat could be Russia. Russia is resource abundant. An abundant resource, if valuable, can provoke tensions over its use, control, and profit. For instance, Le Billon notes, “resources can also motivate secessions in resource-rich regions” (Le Billon, 2001: 574). The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia may be observed as being over energy resources. Likewise, those valuable resources can encourage “violent state control” as their obtainment motivates competing elites (Le Billon, 2001:573). Secondly, resources can also constitute a means to finance conflicts through the acquisition of arms and the payment of mercenaries (Le Billon, 2001: 569). Another point, that from a conflict perspective, resource dependence can be defined as “a historical product associated with a pattern of relation with the global economy, through colonial powers, private trans-border commercial interests, and domestic elites”. It can drive inequalities, social tensions, and conflicts (Le Billon, 2001: 566). Even, some scholars view that natural resource scarcity due to environmental problems such as, particularly water, environmental degradation, increasing numbers of ecological refugees may generate cumulative conflict and violence both with and between states, and that states should include an ecological in their national security strategies (Eckersley, 2006).
H3: Greening does not threaten the exclusive, self-sufficiency nation-level position of militaries.
Keohane (1977) has argued that fragility and sensitivity to one another is the underlining interdependent factor, which forms relationships among nations. In other words, being fragile or sensitive to other nations does not threaten the relations amongst nations. Nor should greening for that matter. For instance, the European Union must be fragile and sensitive to Turkey since its importance for sitting on the route of transiting European energy supplies (Hui 2011:10). Turkey’s geopolitical location rests in the regions of the Caspian, Central Asia, the Persian Gulf, and the Eastern Mediterranean and thus gives Turkey the ability to influence major transit systems for gas as well as oil and hydrocarbon resources to access European markets (Ankara, 2008). Furthermore, a threat to the nation-level position of militaries, threatens the fragility of the relationship.
“Military self-sufficiency” describes that condition in which a state is able to procure or produce domestically quantities and qualities of military supplies, raw materials, and equipment sufficient for its survival or for its foreign policy goals in general (Esper, 1969: 186). Thus, a much higher level of military self-sufficiency is required by states to the extent they want to achieve their decisive importance in their relations with other states (Esper, 1969:186) Thus, military self-sufficiency includes the arming of military forces with self-sufficient technologies and weapons which are adequate to the needs of the state, i.e. greening.
The remainder of the thesis will prove to what extent these former three-hypothesis remain true.
In order to properly understand and evaluate this thesis the following concepts will have to be defined: NATO, greening/green defense, inevitable phenomenon and self-sufficiency
First, the definition of NATO is needed. As referenced above, NATO will be narrowly defined as a military alliance and thus it will be evaluated as such. It is clear that NATO is both military and political in nature. Yet, for the purpose of this thesis, NATO will be used narrowly with a military definition because. Furthermore, in realist theory an alliance is defined primarily if not wholly by its military component.
Second, taken from NATO’s (2013) definition, greening is as follows;
1st: “To limit the damaging impact of defense activities on the environment, for example by minimizing the use of fossil fuels and/or by using alternative/renewable fuels, thus preserving the environment and biodiversity on land & sea.
2nd: Saving, or lowed costs – for example, by being more efficient in the use of existing facilities and capabilities or by introducing new technologies (wind power and solar systems, bio-fuels or other alternative solutions, such as the “smart grids”, which use data and technology to monitor and analyze energy usage).
3rd: To optimize operational effectiveness and lower the operational vulnerabilities. For example, reducing fossil fuel consumption or utilizing alternative and renewable energy sources limits the need for fuel convoys, which in turn puts fewer soldiers at risk. This also entails improving energy efficiency and consumption management.
4th: Being more environmentally- friendly and more energy-efficient in the way business is conducted. Giving small and medium enterprises greater access to the procurement contracts
5th: Educational awareness: Increasing awareness among the personnel in sustainable development. More focus on knowledge-sharing, common training and education. Focus on studies/research/information gathering on social, economic and operational benefits of Green Defense” (Toward, 2013).
The most simple of definitions taken is from a naturalistic perspective, as, “a regularly occurring or apparently inevitable phenomenon observable in human society (Oxford Dictionary). Yet, the connotation of this term in ordinary discourse is that in order for a phenomenon to be inevitable, in other words, to be such and such, an occurrence or event had to happen as it did happen or for that, matter as it will happen. It is not unusual for people generally to say of any event that, in retrospection; it was “inevitable” (Stack, 1973:7) Thus, for example, one might say that renewable energy was inevitable or it was inevitable that humans would slowly deplete the earth of natural resources.
What is implied in such uses of the term inevitable phenomenon is the notion that a causal sequence caused a specific event inevitable or that the occurrence of A made the occurrence of B unavoidable, i.e. the abundant energy of the sun, A, makes the development of solar panels, B, unavoidable. The lexical definition of “inevitable” is simply “something that is unavoidable” or that which cannot be evaded or escaped, here the sense of the word “inevitable is tantamount to “certain” or “necessary” (Stack, 1973:8). Thus, if an event has valid assertions using the ordinary and/or lexical sense of the term “inevitable,” then one would assume that specific events are indeed inevitable, and then they ought to be predictable insofar as one has sufficient knowledge of the prior events which determine the inevitability of any given happening (Stack, 1973:9). Therefore, for the purpose of this thesis it is important to keep in mind that greening of the military is an inevitable phenomenon.
Rousseau’s divine description of the state of contemplation in his famous, Les Reveries du promeneur solitaire, has long since been acknowledged as a remarkable prefiguration of self-sufficiency. His concept began with a focus on a kind of divine self-sufficiency of the individual in which an individual rises above the limitations of everyday life and enables himself to become identified with the pure “feeling of his existence” (Grimsley, 1971:284). Rousseau argues that self-sufficiency is a euphoric goal.
Regardless, humans are social beings and they function predominately in a community, meaning that self-sufficiency, for the purpose of this paper is best studied in a community level, whether this is an organization, state or an international organization like NATO. Rousseau builds his concept of self-sufficiency onto the community, his ideal community is being a small self-sufficient community which relies on its own inner strength and close-knitted relations, an “island” capable of existing in its own right and by its own unaided strength, and occupied by self-reliant inhabitants (Grimsley 1971:285).
More so, Walter Lippmann (1934) states, “that the simplest of all reasons why men come to desire self-sufficiency is the fear of military encirclement and naval blockade: to be prepared adequately for war is to have all essential supplies under national control and, preferably, within an easily defended strategic area (Lippmann, 1934:207). Self-sufficiency has been praised not only as a way out of the slump but also as preparedness for war. Furthermore, the doctrine of self-sufficiency traces back to the depth of the Great Depression, when self-sufficiency was advocated as part of a new economic order (Grebler 1938:1). Military self-sufficiency secures liberty by securing self-sufficiency through an economic perspective. A military cutting down its costs while sustaining its effectiveness is securing self-sufficiency. In sum, self-sufficiency is a euphoric goal formed by fear of conflict and in preparedness for war.
The character of the former research questions and definitions implies that the thesis can be considered a standard evaluation study, of both the existing literature and existing policies. The standard evaluation study evaluates applied policies using a theoretic framework and its effects of the applied policy shows using the predictions and alternative scenarios (van Evera, 1997: 91 cited in Kovářík, 2013). However, since the core of this thesis is Neorealism, the research strategy will roughly follow Kenneth Waltz’s criteria for testing theories and will only slightly focus on the evaluation of NATO’s policies. Therefore, Waltz, in Theory of International Politics, lists them as following:
1. State the theory being tested.
2. Infer hypotheses from it.
3. Subject the hypotheses to experimental or observational tests.
4. In taking steps two and three, use the definition of terms found in the theory being tested.
5. Eliminate or control perturbing variables not included in the theory under test.
6. Devise a number of distinct and demanding tests.
7. If a test is not passed, ask whether the theory flunks completely, needs repair and restatement, or requires a narrowing of the scope of its explanatory claims (Waltz 1979: 13).
The former pages have already been presented in the former pages, and points five and six, while presenting some distinct challenges, will be overcome in the following pages.
The layout of the thesis will thus be as follows: After this introductory chapter in which the theoretical background, research questions and hypothesis of the thesis have been presented, chapter two will present the theoretical framework of the analysis and present the methodology. First, Neorealism was shortly presented and outlined, corresponding to point one, above; and then, analogous with point two, predictions where inferred from the theory with regards to the case of NATO and its member alliances greening policies. The second chapter will thus continue with a theoretical framework of Neorealism and conclude with the methodological overview, limitations of this thesis, data, and sources and expected empirical findings (Thue, 2007:14). The third chapter will be devoted to a brief overview of NATO’s energy security. Chapter four will elaborate on the former chapter and discuss the greening policies in the United States, the United Kingdoms, the European Union, and Turkey. Chapter four directs to point three in Waltz’s list: here the neorealist theory will interpret NATO’s greening policies. Then, in chapter five, points four and five will be addressed. Finally, in chapter six the thesis will conclude with a summary and evaluation of the explanations and arrive at an answer to the research questions. This roughly corresponds with point six and seven. However, referring to point six, the distinct and demanding tests will be pursued by further work.
Chapter 2: Theoretical Framework
The purpose of this chapter is to introduce in detail Neorealism. It will begin by presenting its intellectual origins, followed by its main assumptions and claims. Finally, some methodological reflections will be inferred and empirical predications presented based upon Neorealism.
The Roots of Neorealism
The realist tradition is the oldest within international relations, and has its roots in the writings of Greek historian Thucydides, the Chinese strategist Sun Tzu, and the Indian statesman Kautilya, all of whom wrote their works more than two thousand years ago (Thue, 2007:16).
Niccolo Machiavelli and Thomas Hobbes furthermore some up realism in the 17th century with conflict, war, self-sufficiently and the necessity of responding to these former. Continually, Hans Morgenthau’s (1948) systematized the Realist tradition into a coherent discipline. The core of this discipline includes the following assumptions: 1) States, operating under conditions of anarchy, are the principal actors in international politics; 2) states invariably have some offensive capability, and thus the tools to hurt one another; 3) they can never be certain about the intention of other states; 4) their most basic motive is the wish to survive; and 5) they behave rationally (Mearsheimer 1994/1995: 10).
Furthermore, the realist tradition can be highlighted by one of its main proponents: Robert Gilpin (1986) who wrote that “one must inquire whether or not twentieth-century students of international relations know anything that Thucydides and his fifth-century [BC] compatriots did not know about the behavior of states” (Gilpin, 1986: 227).
Kenneth Waltz: The Father of Neo-Realism
Kenneth Waltz’s contribution to political science and international relations theory is profound. He built on Realist assumptions and developed “a more rigorous theory of international politics than earlier realists had done” and showed “how one can distinguish unit-level from structural elements and then make connections between them” (Waltz 1979: 322). He first presented Neorealism or Structural Realism in his 1979 book Theory of International Politics, which remains the pivotal text of Neorealism.
Yet, Kenneth Waltz’s argument first began with Man, the State, and War (1959) where he stressed the third-image explanations in international politics. First-image explanations trace the causes of international outcomes in the individual; the primary causes of war and peace are rooted in human nature and in the perceptions, choices and actions of decision-makers (Waltz, 2001:16-17). The second-image or state level of analysis puts the causes of war and peace onto the nature of the state; in its internal organization, ethnic composition, or ideology (Waltz 2001: 80-82).
Finally, in the third image, the state system; the strategic setting in which the states interact and the constraints they face is the focus.
Waltz defines a system as consisting of structure and of interacting units (Waltz 1979: 79). The structure of a system varies along three dimensions: 1) the principle by which the units are ordered; 2) the specification of function of formally differentiated parts; and 3) the relative capability of the units themselves (Waltz 1979: 88). The argument here is that all states are considered to be rational actors which remain acting in rational manners in the global environment. States act in their own interest and try to push their own agenda on less powerful states.
While the focal point of realism is the focus on leaders and how they behave to achieve the most for their state, neorealism sees the world from a different perspective. They see the states as actors, with a predictable pattern of behavior, because they act in concurrence with their own capabilities, as well as the current power structures of the world. Thus, the global environment is defined by an international structure where the governing principle is anarchy and the distribution of power, resources and capabilities is measured by the power states hold within this international structure. Waltz's definition of anarchy is the absence of an international government possessing the legitimate use of force (Bordner, 1997).
This structure in the realm of international politics can be declared that “among men, as among states, anarchy, or the absence of government is associated with the occurrence of violence” (Waltz 1979:102). With anarchy or the absence of government, the structure is decentralized, where every sovereign state is considered formally equal as there is no formal central authority to act as an ordering body. In such a structure, the overriding principle is that states only rely on themselves, thus making security the overriding objective.
Thus, these sovereign states act accordingly to the logic of survival, this is their main goal, meaning that they seek their own interest and do not subordinate their own interest for the interests of other states. This driving force of survival is crucial for their rational behavior and is the main factor influencing states to develop offensive military capabilities, mainly as a means to increase their relative power. As Waltz (1979) writes, "for each state its power in relation to other states is ultimately the key to its survival'' (Waltz 1979:9). Given the instinct for survival, and the lack of an overarching authority, states are compelled to pursue ‘self-help’ policies, and to balance against excessive powers or threats where necessary (Waltz 1979 : 102-128).
Balance of Power
Balancing, not bandwagoning is the behavior generally induced by the system for Waltz, this balanced system, either a multipolar or bipolar one, will be restored fairly quickly and even though the system is not always in, it will generally tend towards, balance (Waltz 1979: 126). Ergo, rationally, states try to balance power yet they can never truly gauge the intentions of other states. This lack of trust in turn results in states securing their resources and objectives, many times, at all costs.
For Neorealism, states are considered comparable in terms of needs but not in their capabilities for achieving them. Furthermore, the structural distribution of capabilities results in limits of cooperation among states through fears of relative gains made by other states, and the possibility of dependence on other states. The desire and relative abilities of each state to maximize relative power or security constrain each other, resulting in a balance of power, which shapes international relations.
There are two ways in which states balance power: internal balancing and external balancing. Internal balancing occurs as states grow their own capabilities by increasing economic growth and/or increasing military spending. External balancing occurs as states enter into alliances to check the power of more powerful states or alliances.